Understanding Child Wasting in Ethiopia: Cross-sectional Analysis of 2019 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey Data Using Generalized Linear Latent and Mixed Models

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Study Justification:
– Wasting is a significant public health problem in Ethiopia, with immediate and long-term consequences for children under 5 years old.
– The World Health Organization has set targets to reduce undernutrition, including child wasting, to below 5% by 2025.
– This study aimed to identify the prevalence and associated factors of wasting to inform policy decisions and renew commitments to address the issue.
Study Highlights:
– The prevalence of wasting in children under 5 years old in Ethiopia was found to be 7.68%.
– Factors associated with wasting included feeding diverse foods, female sex of the household head, home delivery, birth order, female child, and household size.
– A significant proportion of mothers did not use antenatal care or have postnatal care for their children.
– Low maternal education, lack of family planning, awareness of sex preferences, women empowerment, and maternal health services were identified as areas for improvement.
Study Recommendations:
– The government and stakeholders should take immediate action to address the child wasting prevalence of 7.68% in Ethiopia.
– Informed policy decisions, technology-based child-feeding education, and support for food self-sufficiency are recommended to tackle the current challenges.
– Efforts should be made to improve maternal education, family planning, awareness of sex preferences, women empowerment, and maternal health services.
Key Role Players:
– Government agencies responsible for health and nutrition policies
– Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) working in child health and nutrition
– Health professionals, including doctors, nurses, and nutritionists
– Community leaders and local authorities
– Researchers and academics specializing in child health and nutrition
Cost Items for Planning Recommendations:
– Development and implementation of technology-based child-feeding education programs
– Training and capacity building for health professionals and community leaders
– Awareness campaigns and community outreach programs
– Improvement of maternal health services, including antenatal and postnatal care
– Support for food self-sufficiency initiatives, such as agricultural programs and access to nutritious food sources
– Research and monitoring activities to assess the effectiveness of interventions and track progress in reducing child wasting

The strength of evidence for this abstract is 8 out of 10.
The evidence in the abstract is strong, but there are some areas for improvement. The study used a large sample size and employed a rigorous methodology, including multilevel ordinal regression using Generalized Linear Latent and Mixed Models (GLLAMM). The prevalence of wasting in Ethiopia was identified, and associated factors were analyzed. The study also provided actionable steps to improve the current challenges, such as informed policy decisions, technology-based child-feeding education, and food self-sufficiency support. However, the abstract could be improved by providing more information on the limitations of the study, such as potential biases or confounding factors. Additionally, it would be helpful to include information on the generalizability of the findings and any recommendations for future research.

Background: Wasting is an immediate, visible, and life-threatening form of undernutrition in children aged <5 years. Within a short time, wasting causes recurrent sickness, delayed physical and mental growth, impatience, poor feeding, and low body weight. The long-term consequences of wasting and undernutrition are stunting, inability to learn, poor health status, and poor work performance. Wasting remains a public health problem in Ethiopia. According to the World Health Organization, countries have to reduce undernutrition including child wasting to below 5% by 2025. Ethiopia is attempting to attain national and international targets of undernutrition while struggling with many problems. Objective: This study aimed to identify the prevalence and associated factors of wasting to provide information for further renewing policy commitments. Methods: We used community-based, cross-sectional data from the Ethiopian Mini Demographic and Health Survey. The survey was conducted in 9 regions and 2 city administrations. Two-stage cluster sampling was used to recruit study participants. In the first stage, enumerations areas were selected, and 28-35 households per enumeration area were selected in the second stage. Our analysis included 2016 women with children aged <5 years from the 2019 EMDHS data set. We dropped incomplete records and included all women who fulfilled the eligibility criteria. We used multilevel ordinal regression using Generalized Linear Latent and Mixed Models (GLLAMM) and predicted probability with log-likelihood ratio tests. Fulfilling the proportional odds model’s assumption during the application of multilevel ordinary logistic regression was a cumbersome task. GLLAMM enabled us to perform the multilevel proportional odds model using an alternative method. Results: In our analysis, wasting was 7.68% (95% CI 6.56%-8.93%). Around 26.82% of mothers never used antenatal care for their current child. Most mothers (52.2%) did not have formal education, and 86.8% did not have postnatal care for their children. Additionally, half (50.93%) of the mothers have ≥6 household members. Wasting was associated with feeding diverse foods (coefficient 4.90, 95% CI 4.90-4.98), female sex of the household head (–40.40, 95% CI –40.41 to –40.32), home delivery (–35.51, 95% CI –35.55 to –35.47), first (16.66, 95% CI, 16.60-16.72) and second (16.65, 95% CI 16.60-16.70) birth order, female child (–12.65, 95% CI –12.69 to –12.62), and household size of 1 to 3 (10.86, 95% CI 10.80-10.92). Conclusions: According to the target set by World Health Organization for reducing undernutrition in children aged <5 years to below 5% by 2025, child wasting of 7.68% in Ethiopia should spark an immediate reaction from the government and stakeholders. Informed policy decisions, technology-based child-feeding education, and food self-sufficiency support could improve the current challenges. Additional effort is important to improve low maternal education, family planning, awareness of sex preferences, women empowerment, and maternal health services.

We used the 2019 Ethiopian Mini Demographic and Health Survey (EMDHS) data for this analysis. This data were collected for the second EMDHS in 2019. In Ethiopia, there are 4 administrative levels (Ethiopia or federal, regions, zones, and woredas). The 9 regions are further divided into city administrations (Addis Ababa and Dire Dawa), agrarian regions (Tigray; Amhara; Oromia; Benishangul-Gumuz; Southern Nations, Nationalities, and People’s Region; Gambela; and Harari), and pastoralists regions (Afar and Somali). We obtained data for 2016 eligible women with children aged <5 years from the 2019 EMDHS data set, downloaded from the MEASURE program web address, and extracted data elements necessary for this analysis. EMDHS 2019 used a sampling frame of all census enumeration areas (EAs) created for the 2019 Ethiopia Population and Housing Census (PHC) prepared by the Central Statistical Agency. There was a complete list of 149,093 EAs created for the 2019 PHC. An EA is a geographic area covering an average of 131 households. The sampling frame contained information about the EA location, type of residence (urban or rural), and an estimated number of residential houses focusing on key indicators for this survey. Each region was stratified into urban and rural areas, yielding 21 sampling strata. Samples of EAs were selected independently in each stratum in 2 stages. Finally, 305 EAs (93 in urban and 212 in rural areas) were selected with a probability proportional to EA size (based on the 2019 PHC frame) and with an independent selection in each sampling stratum. Either all women aged 15-49 years who were permanent residents of the selected households or visitors who slept the night before the survey were eligible for interview. The height and weight of children aged 0-59 months were collected, and women aged 15-49 years were interviewed using the Woman’s Questionnaire [37]. The outcome variable of this study was wasting in children aged <5 years: if a child’s weight for height is below 2 SDs from the expected weight-for-height median identified by the WHO for boys and girls [26]. In this study, we classified children as normal (when the weight-for-height z score is between –2 SDs to 2 SDs) [28]; moderate wasting (when the weight-for-height z score is between –3 SDs to –2 SDs); and severe wasting (when the weight-for-height z score is below –3 SDs), depending on the references from WHO 2006 guideline [38]. We selected the following independent variables based on performance in previous evidence [17,23,25,26,30,32,33,39] and the availability of variables in the 2019 EMDHS data set. Age (mother and child), sex of the child, mother’s educational status, head of household, wealth index, religion, residence, antenatal care, place of delivery, postnatal care, breastfeeding, anemia status of the mother, anemia status of the child, dietary diversity score, husband or partner’s educational level, and birth order were independent variables. Antenatal care visits were presented in groups of none, 1-3, or 4+. A mother may have no visits, 1-3 visits, or over 4 visits according to WHO. The anemia state of the mother was defined as the percentage of women aged 15-49 years with mild, moderate, or severe anemia or with any anemia. It is the number of not pregnant women whose hemoglobin count is less than 12.0 grams per deciliter (g/dL) plus the number of pregnant women whose count is less than 11.0 g/dL. The anemia state of the child was defined as the percentage of children aged 6-59 months with mild, moderate, or severe anemia or with any anemia. This is when the hemoglobin count of a child is less than 11 grams per deciliter (g/dL). The dietary diversity score measured children aged <5 years who consumed a minimum of 5 of the 8 food groups (grains, roots and tubers, legumes and nuts, dairy products, meat [fish, poultry, and liver/organ meats], eggs, vitamin A–rich fruits and vegetables, other fruits and vegetables, and breast milk) in the past 24 hours. Households were the primary unit selected for interview in the Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (DHS). The definition of a household is a person or group of related or unrelated persons who live together in the same dwelling unit(s), who acknowledge one male or female adult as the head of the household, who share the same housekeeping arrangements, and who are considered a single unit. The questionnaire included queries concerning the household’s ownership of several consumer items such as television and car; dwelling characteristics such as flooring material, type of drinking water source, toilet facilities; and other characteristics related to wealth status. Each household asset for which information was collected is assigned a weight or factor score generated through principal components analysis. The resulting asset scores were standardized about a standard normal distribution with a mean of 0 and an SD of 1. These standardized scores were then used to create the breakpoints that define wealth quintiles as lowest, second, middle, fourth, and highest [40]. We used frequencies, weighted frequencies, means, SDs, and percentages or proportions to describe child wasting. Our data set contained many factors, so we checked multi-colinearity using the mean variance inflation factor (1.31), which was within an acceptable range. Before applying different models for analysis, we cleaned the data per the study criteria in Stata software (version 15.0; StataCorp) and weighted considering sampling weight, primary sampling unit, and strata before analyzing. Since wasting has normal, moderate, and severe categories, we applied multilevel ordinary logistic regression to fit the data. We conducted a bivariate analysis to identify candidate variables for multivariate analysis and selected variables with a P value <.20 [40,41] for the multivariable model. In current statistical analyses, studies conduct preanalysis filters to select variables for final models at a P value <.25 [42] and commonly at P<.20 [43]. We declared the final association at a P value of <.05. We presented the outputs of the model using coefficients and 95% CI. The data used in this analysis were hierarchical, which we could not analyze using binary logistic regression. Multilevel logistic regression was also not applicable since the response variable contained more than 2 categories. Therefore, we applied a special type of ordinal logistic regression (Generalized Linear Latent and Mixed Model [GLLAMM]) to account for the parallel planes and proportional odds assumptions. This model has been used to analyze clustered data [44]. We executed a mixed-effects ordinal logistic regression in a multilevel proportional odds model using GLLAMM. We used adaptive quadrature to estimate deviance and log-likelihood [45-47]. After fitting the full model, we also estimated posterior means and SDs of the latent variable. The marginal test gave us the expected response regarding the prior distribution of the latent variables so that we were able to look at the “marginal” or population-averaged effects of covariates [44,48]. This study used secondary data from demographic and health survey data files. Initially, the authors formally requested access to the data sets from the MEASURE DHS team by completing the web-based request form [49]. Accordingly, permission to access the data and the letter of authorization were obtained from ICF International. Therefore, for this study, consent to participate is not applicable. We kept all data confidential, and no effort was made to identify households or individuals. The Ethiopian Health Nutrition and Research Institute Review Board and the National Research Ethics Review Committee at the Ministry of Science and Technology of Ethiopia approved EMDHS 2019. The original informed consent allowed the free deidentified secondary analysis without additional consent. The authors also confirmed that all methods were carried out with relevant guidelines and regulations. The authors also ensured the study data were anonymous or deidentified for the confidentiality and privacy of the participants. According to the original consent, there was no compensation for this cross-sectional data acquisition.

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Based on the provided information, here are some potential innovations that could be used to improve access to maternal health:

1. Technology-based child-feeding education: Developing mobile applications or online platforms that provide information and guidance on proper child feeding practices. This can help educate mothers on nutrition and improve their ability to provide adequate and diverse foods for their children.

2. Food self-sufficiency support: Implementing programs that promote agricultural practices and provide resources for families to grow their own nutritious foods. This can help improve food security and ensure that mothers have access to a variety of healthy foods for themselves and their children.

3. Improved maternal education: Implementing initiatives to increase access to education for women, particularly in rural areas. This can empower women with knowledge and skills to make informed decisions about their own health and the health of their children.

4. Family planning awareness: Increasing awareness and access to family planning services to enable women to plan their pregnancies and ensure adequate spacing between births. This can help reduce the risk of maternal and child health complications associated with closely spaced pregnancies.

5. Strengthening maternal health services: Investing in the improvement of healthcare facilities and services, particularly in rural areas where access to quality maternal healthcare may be limited. This can include training healthcare providers, improving infrastructure, and ensuring the availability of essential maternal health supplies and medications.

These innovations can help address the challenges identified in the study and contribute to improving maternal health outcomes in Ethiopia.
AI Innovations Description
Based on the information provided, here is a recommendation that can be developed into an innovation to improve access to maternal health:

1. Technology-based Child-Feeding Education: Develop and implement a mobile application or online platform that provides accessible and interactive child-feeding education for mothers. This innovation can include information on proper nutrition, breastfeeding techniques, complementary feeding, and the importance of diverse food groups. The platform can also provide personalized recommendations based on the child’s age and nutritional needs. By utilizing technology, this innovation can reach a wider audience and overcome barriers such as limited access to healthcare facilities and low maternal education levels.

Additionally, here are some additional recommendations mentioned in the description that can contribute to improving access to maternal health:

2. Informed Policy Decisions: The government and stakeholders should make informed policy decisions based on the prevalence and associated factors of wasting identified in the study. These policies should prioritize maternal health services, including antenatal care, postnatal care, and access to healthcare facilities.

3. Food Self-Sufficiency Support: Implement programs and initiatives that support food self-sufficiency, such as promoting agricultural practices, improving access to nutritious food, and supporting local food production. This can help address the underlying causes of child wasting and improve overall maternal and child health.

4. Improve Maternal Education: Focus on improving maternal education levels through targeted interventions and awareness campaigns. This can include promoting girls’ education, adult literacy programs, and providing resources for maternal health education.

5. Family Planning and Women Empowerment: Strengthen family planning services and empower women to make informed decisions about their reproductive health. This can include increasing access to contraceptives, promoting gender equality, and providing support for women’s empowerment initiatives.

By implementing these recommendations, it is possible to improve access to maternal health and reduce child wasting in Ethiopia.
AI Innovations Methodology
Based on the provided description, here are some potential recommendations to improve access to maternal health:

1. Strengthening Antenatal Care (ANC) Services: Increase awareness and utilization of ANC services by implementing community-based education programs, providing incentives for ANC attendance, and improving the quality and availability of ANC services.

2. Enhancing Postnatal Care (PNC) Services: Promote the importance of postnatal care for both mothers and newborns, provide training for healthcare providers on PNC, and ensure that PNC services are accessible and affordable for all women.

3. Improving Maternal Education: Implement programs to improve maternal education levels, including adult literacy programs, vocational training, and scholarships for girls to encourage them to stay in school.

4. Increasing Family Planning Services: Strengthen family planning services to enable women to space their pregnancies and have control over their reproductive health. This can include increasing the availability and accessibility of contraceptives, providing comprehensive family planning counseling, and addressing cultural and social barriers to family planning.

5. Empowering Women: Promote women’s empowerment through initiatives that focus on gender equality, women’s rights, and economic empowerment. This can include providing training and support for income-generating activities, promoting women’s participation in decision-making processes, and addressing gender-based violence.

To simulate the impact of these recommendations on improving access to maternal health, a methodology could include the following steps:

1. Data Collection: Collect baseline data on key indicators related to maternal health, such as ANC attendance rates, PNC utilization, maternal education levels, family planning uptake, and women’s empowerment indicators.

2. Intervention Design: Design interventions based on the recommendations mentioned above. Determine the target population, intervention components, and implementation strategies.

3. Modeling: Use a simulation model, such as a mathematical or statistical model, to simulate the impact of the interventions on the selected indicators. The model should take into account the baseline data, intervention coverage, and potential effects of the interventions on the indicators.

4. Sensitivity Analysis: Conduct sensitivity analysis to assess the robustness of the results and explore the potential impact of different scenarios or variations in the intervention implementation.

5. Evaluation: Evaluate the simulated impact of the interventions on improving access to maternal health by comparing the modeled outcomes with the baseline data. Assess the effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, and feasibility of the interventions.

6. Policy Recommendations: Based on the simulation results, provide policy recommendations for scaling up the interventions that have the greatest potential for improving access to maternal health. Consider the feasibility, sustainability, and equity aspects of the recommended interventions.

It is important to note that the methodology for simulating the impact of recommendations may vary depending on the specific context and available data. The above steps provide a general framework for conducting such an analysis.

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