Trends and predictors of mother-to-child transmission of HIV in an era of protocol changes: Findings from two large health facilities in North East Nigeria

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Study Justification:
This study aimed to assess the trends and predictors of mother-to-child transmission of HIV (MTCT) in routine health-facility settings in North East Nigeria. The justification for this study is to monitor the risk of MTCT in these settings, where service delivery is often sub-optimal, despite the availability of antiretroviral interventions. By understanding the factors contributing to MTCT and identifying effective interventions, this study can inform efforts to reduce MTCT rates and improve the delivery of prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV (PMTCT) services.
Highlights:
1. The overall MTCT rate among HIV-exposed infants (HEIs) in the two health facilities was 9.7%.
2. The MTCT rate decreased significantly from 14.3% in 2008 to 4.9% in 2014.
3. The lowest MTCT rate (5.4%) was observed when all pregnant women living with HIV received triple antiretroviral therapy (ARVT/P).
4. Infant age, breastfeeding option, antiretroviral regimen, and year were identified as predictors of MTCT.
Recommendations:
1. Accelerate efforts to scale up lifelong ARVT/P (Option B+) in Nigeria to further reduce MTCT rates.
2. Improve service delivery in routine health-facility settings to ensure optimal implementation of PMTCT protocols.
3. Enhance monitoring and evaluation systems to track MTCT rates and identify areas for improvement.
4. Strengthen counseling and support services for pregnant women living with HIV to promote adherence to antiretroviral regimens and infant feeding guidelines.
Key Role Players:
1. Ministry of Health: Responsible for policy development, coordination, and oversight of PMTCT programs.
2. Health facility managers: Ensure the implementation of PMTCT protocols and provide necessary resources and support.
3. Healthcare providers: Deliver PMTCT services, including counseling, testing, and provision of antiretroviral therapy.
4. Community health workers: Engage with communities to raise awareness, promote testing, and support adherence to PMTCT interventions.
5. Non-governmental organizations: Provide technical assistance, capacity building, and support for PMTCT programs.
Cost Items for Planning Recommendations:
1. Training and capacity building for healthcare providers on PMTCT protocols and counseling skills.
2. Procurement and distribution of antiretroviral drugs for pregnant women and HEIs.
3. Development and dissemination of educational materials for pregnant women and their families.
4. Monitoring and evaluation systems to track MTCT rates and program performance.
5. Support for community engagement and awareness campaigns.
6. Infrastructure and equipment upgrades to improve service delivery in health facilities.
Please note that the provided cost items are general categories and not actual cost estimates. Actual costs will vary depending on the specific context and implementation strategies.

The strength of evidence for this abstract is 8 out of 10.
The evidence in the abstract is strong because it is based on a retrospective review of data from two large health facilities in Nigeria. The study includes a large sample size of 1,651 mother-to-infant pairs and analyzes HIV deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) polymerase-chain reaction (PCR) test results from 2008 to 2014. The study uses descriptive statistics and logistic regression analyses to estimate the mother-to-child transmission of HIV (MTCT) rate and identify predictors of MTCT. The findings suggest a decline in MTCT rate over time and highlight the importance of antiretroviral therapy in reducing MTCT. To improve the evidence, future studies could consider a prospective design and include a control group for comparison.

Background Research studies have demonstrated a reduction in the risk of mother-to-child transmission of HIV (MTCT) to less than 2%, or 5% in non-breastfeeding and breastfeeding populations, respectively, with antiretroviral interventions. However, the risk of MTCT in routine health-facility settings, where service delivery is usually sub-optimal needs monitoring. Method We conducted a retrospective review of data from 2008–2014, in two health facilities in Adamawa State, Nigeria. Descriptive statistics were used to estimate overall MTCT rate and MTCT rate by year, and period of prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV (PMTCT) protocol implementation. We conducted simple and multiple logistic-regression analyses, to identify predictors of MTCT. Results Data from 1,651 mother-to-infant pairs, with HIV deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) polymerase-chain reaction (PCR) test results from 2008 (n = 49), 2009 (n = 246), 2010 (n = 280), 2011 (n = 335), 2012 (n = 290), 2013 (n = 225) and 2014 (n = 226) were analysed. The overall MTCT rate among HIV exposed infants (HEIs) was 9.7% (95% CI 8.3% – 11.1%) at a median age of 8 weeks (IQR = 6–20). The MTCT rate decreased from 14.3% (4.4%-24.2%) in 2008 to 4.9% (2.1%-7.7%) in 2014 (p = 0.016). The MTCT rate was the lowest (5.4% [3.7% – 7.0%]) when all pregnant women living with HIV received triple antiretroviral therapy, as treatment or prophylaxis (ARVT/P). Using the pooled data, we found that infant age, breastfeeding option, antiretroviral regimen and year were predictors of MTCT. The adjusted odds of MTCT were significantly higher, when neither mother nor HEI received ARVT/P (Adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 26.4 [14.0–49.8], and lower amongst infants born in 2012, compared with those born in 2008 (AOR 0.2 [0.0–1.0]). Conclusion The MTCT rate declined significantly between 2008 and 2014 in these two routine health-facility settings in Nigeria. Our study suggests that ARVT/P yields the lowest MTCT. Thus, efforts to scale up lifelong ARVT/P (Option B+) in Nigeria should be accelerated.

We conducted a retrospective review of routine facility-held records; and analyzed routine individual-level patient data extracted from facility-based registers, from January 2008 to December 2014 (S1 File). All data were analyzed cross-sectionally. Records reviewed included those from early-infant diagnosis (EID)/Infant follow-up registers and HIV PCR request/result forms accessed from the PMTCT and medical record units of the hospitals. The review was conducted at Specialist Hospital (SH) Yola, a health facility providing predominantly secondary healthcare services in the Yola North Local Government Area (LGA), and Federal Medical Centre (FMC) Yola, a tertiary health facility in the Yola South LGA. The two health facilities commenced delivery of PMTCT services in September 2007 and January 2008, respectively. Other services rendered by both of these facilities included antenatal care (ANC), general out-patient and specialist services. The facilities render services to pregnant women and HIV-exposed infants (HEIs), in accordance with national cascades and protocols (S1 Fig and S1 Table). Using Lasec® DBS Collection kits with 5 spots, infant dried blood spot (DBS) samples were collected and couriered to the Federal Medical Centre, Jalingo. This centralized HIV deoxyribonucleic acid polymerase-chain reaction (DNA PCR) testing facility uses the Roche® brand of PCR machine; and is located approximately 167 kilometres away from Yola. We defined MTCT rate as the proportion of tested HIV-exposed infants (HEIs) who tested HIV positive. This formed the basis of our evaluation of PMTCT effectiveness as it allowed us to assess MTCT reduction in routine health-facility settings. For the overall MTCT rate, the MTCT rate by year, and the MTCT rate by PMTCT protocol period, the denominators were the total number of HEIs tested for HIV, with DNA PCR results: for the entire seven-year period, during a specific year, and during the specific protocol period; while the numerators were the number of HEIs that tested HIV positive: for the entire seven-year period, during a specific year, and during the specific period. We defined Period 1, as the period when only the 2007 National Guidelines were used (Jan 2008 –Jan 2010), and Period 2 as the period when only the 2010 National Guidelines were used (Jun 2012-Dec 2014). The transitional period refers to the period when both the 2007 and the 2010 Guidelines were used (Feb 2010 –May 2012). We reviewed regimens taken by HIV- positive pregnant women and HEIs, in order to confirm the duration of the transition period. From the pooled data, we estimated the transitional period to be two years and four months (Feb 2010 –May 2012). We defined exclusive breastfeeding as feeding an infant with breast milk only [25]. This excluded the use of formula feed, or any other liquids or solids [25]. The use of the prescribed medications and oral rehydration salt (ORS) for diarrhea was, allowed, as per WHO definitions [25]. We defined mixed feeding as feeding an infant with both breast milk and formula feed, or any other liquid, or solids [25]. Lastly, replacement feeding/not breastfed at all, refers to avoiding all breastmilk and feeding an infant with an appropriate replacement milk [25]. The data were analyzed by using STATA 14.2 [26]. Descriptive statistics (proportions) were used to describe the overall MTCT rate, MTCT rate by year, and the PMTCT protocol periods. Simple and multiple logistic regression analyses were conducted to establish the predictors of MTCT. Covariates were selected, based on the current literature on the risk factors for MTCT [19,21, 23, 24, 27–29]. Specifically, we included gender, infant age, breastfeeding option, ART/ARV prophylaxis receipt, hospital and year, in our logistics regression model. A p-value <0.05 was considered statistically significant. No adjustment was made in estimating the confidence intervals. All 158 infants, without first HIV DNA PCR test results, were excluded from all analyses. HIV-exposed infants excluded from the analyses differed significantly by age and feeding option, as well as by infant and maternal ARV use, compared with HEIs included in the analyses (S2 Table). For longitudinally linked results, if an infant tested HIV negative at first test and HIV positive at second testing, the HIV positive result was used in the analysis. Ethics approval for the study was obtained from the Senate Research Committee of the University of the Western Cape. Permission to access patient records was obtained from the research ethics committees of the two health facilities involved in this study, and from the Adamawa State Ministry of Health (SMoH). No individual patient-level consent was obtained; as no patient was interviewed. All data were de-identified: names of patients were not extracted. Individual patient-level consent was not required by the ethics review committees.

Based on the provided information, here are some potential innovations that could improve access to maternal health:

1. Mobile Health (mHealth) Applications: Develop mobile applications that provide pregnant women with information and reminders about antenatal care visits, medication adherence, and breastfeeding practices. These apps can also offer access to telemedicine consultations with healthcare providers.

2. Telemedicine Services: Implement telemedicine services to enable pregnant women in remote or underserved areas to consult with healthcare professionals without the need for travel. This can help address the shortage of healthcare providers in certain regions.

3. Community Health Workers: Train and deploy community health workers to provide education, support, and basic healthcare services to pregnant women in their communities. These workers can help improve access to antenatal care and provide guidance on healthy pregnancy practices.

4. Integrated Health Information Systems: Implement integrated health information systems that allow for seamless sharing of patient data between different healthcare facilities. This can help ensure continuity of care and prevent duplication of tests or treatments.

5. Supply Chain Management: Improve supply chain management systems to ensure the availability of essential maternal health supplies, such as antiretroviral drugs for preventing mother-to-child transmission of HIV. This can help prevent stockouts and ensure that pregnant women receive the necessary medications.

6. Health Education Programs: Develop and implement comprehensive health education programs that target pregnant women and their families. These programs can provide information on nutrition, hygiene, breastfeeding, and the importance of antenatal care, ultimately improving maternal and child health outcomes.

7. Public-Private Partnerships: Foster partnerships between public and private healthcare providers to expand access to maternal health services. This can involve leveraging private sector resources and expertise to improve the quality and availability of care.

8. Transportation Solutions: Address transportation barriers by implementing innovative transportation solutions, such as mobile clinics or community-based transportation services, to ensure that pregnant women can easily access healthcare facilities.

9. Maternal Health Vouchers: Introduce voucher programs that provide pregnant women with subsidized or free access to essential maternal health services. These vouchers can be distributed to vulnerable populations to ensure equitable access to care.

10. Quality Improvement Initiatives: Implement quality improvement initiatives in healthcare facilities to enhance the overall quality of maternal health services. This can involve training healthcare providers, improving infrastructure, and implementing evidence-based guidelines and protocols.

It is important to note that the specific context and needs of the target population should be considered when implementing these innovations.
AI Innovations Description
Based on the information provided, the recommendation to improve access to maternal health and reduce the risk of mother-to-child transmission of HIV (MTCT) is to scale up lifelong antiretroviral therapy/prophylaxis (ARVT/P) for pregnant women living with HIV. This recommendation is based on the finding that the MTCT rate decreased significantly from 14.3% in 2008 to 4.9% in 2014 when all pregnant women living with HIV received triple antiretroviral therapy.

To implement this recommendation, efforts should be made to accelerate the adoption of Option B+ (lifelong ARVT/P) in Nigeria. This would involve ensuring that all pregnant women living with HIV have access to and receive appropriate antiretroviral treatment or prophylaxis throughout their pregnancy and breastfeeding period. This approach has been shown to yield the lowest MTCT rates.

Additionally, it is important to strengthen routine health-facility settings to improve service delivery and optimize PMTCT interventions. This may include training healthcare providers on the latest PMTCT protocols, ensuring availability of necessary medications and supplies, and improving data collection and monitoring systems.

By implementing these recommendations, access to maternal health services can be improved, and the risk of MTCT of HIV can be further reduced, leading to better health outcomes for both mothers and infants.
AI Innovations Methodology
Based on the provided description, here are some potential recommendations to improve access to maternal health:

1. Strengthening PMTCT Services: Focus on improving the delivery of prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV (PMTCT) services in routine health-facility settings. This can include ensuring availability of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and prophylaxis for pregnant women living with HIV, as well as providing adequate counseling and support for adherence to treatment.

2. Scaling up Lifelong ARVT/P: Accelerate efforts to scale up lifelong antiretroviral therapy/prophylaxis (ARVT/P), particularly Option B+ (where all pregnant women living with HIV receive triple antiretroviral therapy). This approach has shown to yield the lowest mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) rate and should be prioritized in Nigeria.

3. Enhancing ANC Services: Improve antenatal care (ANC) services to ensure early identification of HIV-positive pregnant women and timely initiation of appropriate interventions. This can involve strengthening ANC clinics, training healthcare providers, and implementing standardized protocols for HIV testing and counseling.

4. Promoting Exclusive Breastfeeding: Encourage and support exclusive breastfeeding for HIV-positive mothers, as it has been shown to reduce the risk of MTCT. Provide education and resources to promote safe breastfeeding practices, including proper infant feeding techniques and adherence to antiretroviral medication.

To simulate the impact of these recommendations on improving access to maternal health, a methodology could include the following steps:

1. Data Collection: Gather relevant data on maternal health indicators, such as MTCT rates, ANC attendance, ART coverage, and breastfeeding practices. This can be done through retrospective reviews of routine facility-held records, patient data extracted from registers, and other relevant sources.

2. Baseline Assessment: Analyze the collected data to establish the current status of access to maternal health services. Calculate key indicators, such as MTCT rates, and identify any existing gaps or challenges in service delivery.

3. Intervention Design: Based on the identified recommendations, develop an intervention plan that outlines specific actions to be taken to improve access to maternal health. This plan should include details on the implementation of each recommendation, target populations, and expected outcomes.

4. Simulation Modeling: Use simulation modeling techniques to estimate the potential impact of the intervention plan on improving access to maternal health. This can involve creating mathematical models that simulate the dynamics of maternal health indicators and projecting their changes over time based on the implemented interventions.

5. Sensitivity Analysis: Conduct sensitivity analysis to assess the robustness of the simulation results. This involves testing the model under different scenarios and assumptions to evaluate the potential variability in outcomes.

6. Evaluation and Monitoring: Continuously monitor and evaluate the implemented interventions to assess their effectiveness and make necessary adjustments. Collect data on key indicators to compare against the simulation results and measure the progress towards improving access to maternal health.

By following this methodology, policymakers and healthcare providers can gain insights into the potential impact of recommended interventions and make informed decisions to improve access to maternal health.

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