Pooled prevalence and associated factors of diarrhea among under-five years children in East Africa: A multilevel logistic regression analysis

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Study Justification:
– Diarrhea is a major cause of death and morbidity among children under five years old worldwide.
– Access to water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) is limited in East Africa, leading to a high burden of diarrhea diseases.
– Previous studies in East Africa have varied in design and sample size, making regional comparisons difficult.
– Combining datasets from 12 East African countries allows for a larger sample size, better statistical power, and the opportunity to develop new indicators.
– This study aims to assess the prevalence and associated factors of diarrhea among children under five years old using the most recent national representative Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) from these countries.
Highlights:
– The pooled prevalence of diarrhea among children under five years old in East Africa is 14.28%.
– Factors associated with diarrheal diseases include maternal age, child’s age, household wealth status, timing of breastfeeding initiation, community-level educational status, and more.
– The study provides valuable insight into the sub-regional prevalence of diarrhea and identifies key factors contributing to the disease.
Recommendations for Lay Reader:
– Government and concerned bodies should scale up maternal and child health services, particularly in economically marginalized communities.
– Awareness should be created for uneducated mothers regarding the nature of childhood diarrhea.
Recommendations for Policy Maker:
– Policies and interventions should prioritize improving access to water, sanitation, and hygiene in East African countries.
– Maternal and child health services should be expanded and targeted towards economically marginalized communities.
– Educational programs should be implemented to raise awareness among mothers about childhood diarrhea and its prevention.
Key Role Players:
– Government health departments
– Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) working in the field of maternal and child health
– Community health workers
– Health facilities and healthcare providers
– Education departments and teachers
Cost Items for Planning Recommendations:
– Infrastructure development for improved water supply, sanitation facilities, and hygiene promotion
– Training and capacity building for healthcare providers and community health workers
– Educational programs and materials for raising awareness among mothers
– Monitoring and evaluation of interventions
– Research and data collection to assess the impact of interventions

The strength of evidence for this abstract is 7 out of 10.
The evidence in the abstract is rated 7 because it provides a detailed description of the study design, data collection methods, and statistical analysis. However, it does not mention the specific measures taken to ensure the validity and reliability of the data. To improve the evidence, the abstract could include information about the sampling strategy, data quality control measures, and any limitations of the study.

Background Worldwide, diarrhea is the second most common cause of death and morbidity among under-five years’ children. In sub-saran Africa, access to water, sanitation, and hygiene are very scanty and the burden of diarrhea diseases is countless relative to the rest of the world. Prior studies conducted in East Africa vary in design, sample size, and other data collection tools. Through those studies, it is hard to make regional comparisons. Combining datasets that are studied on similar people and having common variable identified enhances statistical power due to the large sample size, advance the ability to compare outcomes, and create the opportunity to develop new indicators. Hence, this study aimed to assess the prevalence and associated factors of diarrhea among under five years’ children using the most recent national representative Demographic and Health Surveys from 12 East African countries. The information generated from this pooled datasets will give good insight into the sub-regional prevalence of diarrhea. Methods This study utilized secondary data from 12 East African countries’ most recent demographic health survey. Variables were extracted and appended together to assess the pooled prevalence of diarrhea and associated factors. A total of 90,263 under-five years of age children were encompassed in this study. STATA version was used to cross-tabulate and fit the models. To account for the hierarchical nature of the demographic health survey, multilevel logistic regression was calibrated. BIC, AIC, deviance, and LLR were used as Model comparison parameters. Variables with a p-value of <0.2 were considered for multivariable analysis. Adjusted odds ratio with 95% CI and p-value <0.05 were used to declare statistical significances of factors. Results The pooled prevalence of diarrhea in under five years children was 14.28% [95%CI; 14.06%, 14.51%]. Being child whose mother age is 15–24 years [AOR = 1.41, 95% CI; 1.33, 1.49], 25–34 years[AOR = 1.17, 95%CI; 1.10, 1.23], being 7–12 months child [AOR = 3.10, 95%CI; 2.86, 3.35], being 12–24 months child [AOR = 2.56, 95%CI; 2.38, 3.75], being 25–59 months child [AOR = 0.88, 95%CI; 0.82, 0.95], being child from poor household [AOR = 1.16, 95%CI; 1.09, 1.23], delayed breast feeding initiation (initiated after an hour of birth) [AOR = 1.15, 95%CI; 1.10, 1.20], and being a child from community with low educational status [AOR = 1.10, 95%CI; 1.03, 1.18] were factors associated with diarrheal diseases. Conclusion The pooled prevalence of diarrhea among under five years of children in East African countries is high. Maternal age, child’s age, wealth status of the household, the timing of breast feeding initiation, sex of the child, community level of educational status, working status of the mother, and the number of under five children were factors that were associated with diarrheal diseases. Scaling up of maternal and child health services by government and other concerned bodies should consider those economically marginalized communities. Additionally, awareness should be created for those uneducated mothers concerning the nature of childhood diarrhea.

As the majority of the population of East African countries are rural residents, more than fifty percent of the resident of East African countries lacks improved WASH indicators [20]. East African countries are countries with the highest prevalence of diarrheal diseases among under-five children when compared to the rest of the world [17]. This study used data from 12 Eastern African countries of most up to dated demographic health surveys. Eastern African countries embodied in this study were Burundi, Ethiopia, Comoros, Uganda, Rwanda, Tanzania, Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, Kenya, Zambia, and Malawi. Mayotte, Reunion, South Sudan, Djibouti, Seychelles, and Mauritius were omitted because of no history of DHS conduction. Additionally, Eritrea and Sudan were also not included due to the long period since their last conduction of DHS, i.e. Eritrea in 2002 and Sudan in 1989/90 (Table 1). It was conducted using the principle of a two-stage stratified sampling procedure. In the first stage, Enumeration Areas (EAs) were randomly selected proportionally to their respected clusters. In the second stage, households were selected. The primary objective of conducting DHS is to provide up-to-date information about health and health-related indicators for planning, policy formulation, monitoring, and evaluation of population and health programs in the respective countries. Variables were extracted after a deep literature review and appended together to assess the pooled prevalence of diarrhea and associated factors in East Africa among under five children. In this study, the children’s dataset (KR file) was used. Ultimately, a total of 129,651(weighted) children under the age of five were encompassed in this study. The outcome variable was binary, children who had diarrhea at any time during the 2 weeks preceding the interview. The response variable diarrhea is recoded as follows: Those mothers/caregivers who responded yes to the question “had diarrhea in the last two weeks?” were coded as 1 and those who answered no were coded as 0 [21]. We sub-portioned the independent variables into two groups; level-1 (individual-level factors) and level -2(community-level factors). Child’s age, child’s sex, number of under five years children, immunization status, duration of breast feeding in months, age of the mother/caregiver, education of the mother, mother’s working status, mass media exposure of the mother, household wealth status, type of latrine, type of drinking water source and timing of breast feeding initiation after birth were considered for this study. The place of residence, community level of poverty, and community-level of educational status were variables assigned as community-level factors. The variable community level of poverty and community-level of educational status were generated by aggregating individual level factors at the cluster/community level. Media exposure. This variable is composite which consisted of watching television, listening to the radio, and reading magazines. Watching television (those who watch television less than once a week, at least once a week and every day are coded as = yes, otherwise = no), frequency of listening to the radio (listening less than once a week, at least once a week and every day are coded as = yes, otherwise = no) and frequency of reading Newspaper or magazine (reading less than once a week, at least once a week and every day are coded as = yes, otherwise = no) [22]. Visits to health facility or visited by health worker. Women either visited by health worker or had visited health facility in the last 12 months are categorized under “yes” and those who neither visited health facility nor visited by health worker were categorized under “no”. Type of toilet. Population using toilet characterized by flushing to somewhere else, pit latrine—without slab, bucket toilet, hanging toilet or other toilet were coded as “unimproved toilet” and population using toilet which flush—to piped sewer system, flush—to septic tank, flush—to pit latrine, flush—don’t know where, pit latrine—ventilated improved pit, pit latrine—with slab or composting toilet were coded as “improved toilet” [22]. Drinking water type. Household using drinking water which is, piped into dwelling piped to yard/plot public tap/standpipe, piped to a neighbor, tube well or borehole, protected well, protected spring, rainwater, tanker truck, cart with small tank or bottled water were coded as “improved drinking water” and household categorized under unprotected well, unprotected spring, surface water or other sources of drinking water was coded as “unimproved drinking water” [22]. Timing of BF initiation. Children who initiated BF within one hour of birth are labeled as “early” and coded 1, apart from that labeled as “delayed” and coded as 0 [23]. Community level of poverty. Proportion of households assigned to poorest and poorer wealth index. Those fall at the median value and above are categorized under the high poverty level, and those who fall below the median value of the variables are categorized under the low poverty level. Median is used as a cut point because of skewed distribution. The same way of categorization was used for community-level educational status. Community-level of educational status. Proportion of mother’s/caregiver’s of the child who is educated primary and above are categorized as having “high level of educational status” and otherwise “low level of educational status”. Perceived distance from health facility. The DHS program asks caregivers or mothers their perception whether the distance from health facility is a “big problem “or “no a big problem” when they were seeking medical advice or treatment for themselves when they are sick. Immunization status. Fully vaccination definition is adopted from the number of children aged 12–23 months who received one dose of BCG vaccine, three doses of polio vaccine, three doses of pentavallent vaccine (DTP-hepB-Hib), three-dose of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV), two-doses of virus vaccine, and one dose of measles vaccine was considered as “fully vaccinated” otherwise “not fully vaccinated [24]. Cross tabulations and summary statistics were done using STATA version 16 software. The forest plot technique was utilized to display the prevalence of diarrhea across countries. To plot 95% CI of the coefficient of each variable of the best-fitted model, STATA command “coefpot” was applied. AS the DHS datasets have hierarchical nature (sample is not taken randomly), non-independencies of observations and violation of equal variance assumption of the single level statistical model like logistic regression are inevitable. In the multistage stratified clustered sampling of DHS, children within a cluster are more likely to relate to certain characteristics as compared to children between the clusters. To overcome those problems, to draw reliable inferences, we calibrated so what sophisticated model called the multilevel logistic model to identify factors associated with diarrhea. We first calibrated the null model (model with only constant/intercept) in order to declare nesting of observation within clusters and to determine the use of multilevel analysis. To warrant the use of multilevel analysis, ICC (intra-class coefficient) was checked. Intra-class coefficient takes the value between 0 and 1. If the intraclass coefficient value approaches value one, then it indicates observations within the cluster are more similar than observations between clusters. Therefore, it implies that a multilevel model is necessary for that specific dataset. It also shows how much of the response’s total variation is explained by clustering. Deviance Information Criterion (DIC), Log-Likelihood Ratio (LLR), Akaike information criteria (AIC), and Bayesian information criteria (BIC) were used as a model comparison and selection parameters. The model with the lowest values of those parameters was selected as the best-fitted model. The model comparison was done among the null model (a model with no independent variables), model I (a model with only individual-level factors), model II (a model with only community-level factors) and model III (a model with both individual and community level independent variables). Variables with a p-value <0.2 in the bi-variable analysis were considered in the multivariable mixed-effect logistic regression model. Adjusted Odds Ratios (AOR) with a 95% Confidence Interval (CI) and p-value ≤ 0.05 in the multivariable model were used to declare significant factors associated with diarrhea. This study used datasets of national representative demographic health surveys. Therefore, ethical is approval not required. But, datasets for this study were requested by providing a clear explanation about the objectives and necessity of this study. We registered and requested the DHS dataset to the online database (www.dhsprogram.com) and received an authorization letter to download the requested datasets.

Based on the provided information, it seems that the study aims to assess the prevalence and associated factors of diarrhea among children under five years old in East Africa. The study utilizes secondary data from the most recent national representative Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) from 12 East African countries. The data is pooled together to enhance statistical power and enable regional comparisons.

Some potential innovations that could improve access to maternal health based on this study could include:

1. Mobile Health (mHealth) Solutions: Developing mobile applications or text messaging services that provide information and reminders to mothers about proper hygiene practices, breastfeeding, and timely healthcare visits.

2. Community Health Workers: Training and deploying community health workers who can provide education and support to mothers in rural areas, including information on diarrhea prevention and management.

3. Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WASH) Interventions: Implementing WASH interventions in communities, such as improving access to clean water sources, promoting proper sanitation practices, and providing hygiene education.

4. Maternal and Child Health Clinics: Strengthening and expanding maternal and child health clinics in rural areas, ensuring they are well-equipped and staffed with trained healthcare professionals who can provide comprehensive care and education.

5. Health Education Campaigns: Conducting targeted health education campaigns to raise awareness about the importance of early breastfeeding initiation, proper hygiene practices, and the prevention of diarrheal diseases among mothers and caregivers.

These are just a few potential innovations that could be considered to improve access to maternal health based on the study’s findings. It is important to note that the specific context and needs of each community should be taken into account when implementing any innovation.
AI Innovations Description
The recommendation to improve access to maternal health based on the study findings is to focus on the following interventions:

1. Improve maternal age: Target interventions towards adolescent mothers (15-24 years) and mothers in their late twenties to early thirties (25-34 years) to reduce the prevalence of diarrhea among their children.

2. Enhance breastfeeding practices: Promote early initiation of breastfeeding within the first hour after birth to reduce the risk of diarrhea in children. Provide education and support to mothers to ensure timely initiation of breastfeeding.

3. Address household poverty: Implement measures to alleviate poverty and improve the economic status of households, as children from poor households were found to be at higher risk of diarrhea. This can include income-generation programs, social protection measures, and access to basic services.

4. Improve community-level education: Increase awareness and education among communities, particularly targeting mothers with low educational status. This can be achieved through community-based programs, health education campaigns, and partnerships with local organizations.

5. Strengthen water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) infrastructure: Enhance access to clean drinking water and improved sanitation facilities, such as improved toilets. This can be achieved through investment in WASH infrastructure, community mobilization, and behavior change communication.

6. Strengthen healthcare services: Scale up maternal and child health services, including regular visits to health facilities and access to healthcare workers. This can be achieved through the expansion of healthcare facilities, training of healthcare providers, and community outreach programs.

By implementing these recommendations, it is expected that access to maternal health will be improved, leading to a reduction in the prevalence of diarrhea among under-five children in East Africa.
AI Innovations Methodology
To improve access to maternal health in East Africa, here are some potential recommendations:

1. Strengthening healthcare infrastructure: Investing in the development and improvement of healthcare facilities, including hospitals, clinics, and maternity centers, can help increase access to maternal health services.

2. Enhancing transportation systems: Improving transportation networks, especially in rural areas, can ensure that pregnant women have access to timely and safe transportation to healthcare facilities during pregnancy, labor, and postpartum.

3. Increasing community awareness and education: Conducting awareness campaigns and educational programs can help educate communities about the importance of maternal health and encourage women to seek appropriate care during pregnancy and childbirth.

4. Training and capacity building: Providing training and capacity building programs for healthcare providers, including midwives and nurses, can enhance their skills and knowledge in providing quality maternal healthcare services.

5. Strengthening referral systems: Establishing effective referral systems between primary healthcare centers and higher-level facilities can ensure that pregnant women with complications receive timely and appropriate care.

To simulate the impact of these recommendations on improving access to maternal health, a methodology could include the following steps:

1. Baseline data collection: Gather data on the current state of maternal health access in the target region, including information on healthcare infrastructure, transportation systems, community awareness, and healthcare provider capacity.

2. Define indicators: Identify key indicators that can measure the impact of the recommendations, such as the number of healthcare facilities, transportation availability, community knowledge about maternal health, and healthcare provider skills.

3. Develop a simulation model: Create a simulation model that incorporates the baseline data and the potential impact of the recommendations. This model should consider factors such as population size, geographical distribution, and existing healthcare systems.

4. Input recommendation scenarios: Input different scenarios into the simulation model, representing the implementation of the recommendations. For example, increase the number of healthcare facilities, improve transportation systems, or conduct community awareness campaigns.

5. Simulate outcomes: Run the simulation model with each recommendation scenario to simulate the potential outcomes. This could include estimating the increase in the number of pregnant women accessing healthcare services, reduction in maternal mortality rates, or improvement in overall maternal health indicators.

6. Analyze results: Analyze the simulated outcomes to assess the impact of each recommendation scenario on improving access to maternal health. Compare the results of different scenarios to identify the most effective strategies.

7. Refine and iterate: Based on the analysis, refine the recommendations and simulation model if necessary. Repeat the simulation process to further optimize the strategies for improving access to maternal health.

By following this methodology, policymakers and stakeholders can gain insights into the potential impact of different recommendations and make informed decisions to improve access to maternal health in East Africa.

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