Impact of antimalarial resistance and COVID-19 pandemic on malaria care among pregnant women in Northern Uganda (ERASE): protocol of a prospective observational study

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Study Justification:
– Uganda has a high burden of malaria cases and deaths, with pregnant women being particularly vulnerable.
– The emergence of antimalarial resistance and the COVID-19 pandemic have further threatened malaria control efforts.
– This study aims to investigate the impact of these factors on malaria care among pregnant women in Northern Uganda.
Study Highlights:
– Facility-based, prospective observational study.
– Three separate populations: cohort of pregnant women, antimalarial resistance sub-population, and COVID-19 impact population.
– Data collection through semi-structured questionnaires and analysis of blood samples.
– Exploration of malaria prevention practices, healthcare seeking behavior, and use of insecticide-treated nets.
– Evaluation of genetic markers of resistance to artemisinin derivatives and sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine.
– Retrospective time-interrupted series to investigate the impact of COVID-19 on malaria care.
Study Recommendations:
– Assess the incidence of asymptomatic parasitemia and malaria-related outcomes among pregnant women.
– Investigate attitudes towards malaria prevention, administration of intermittent preventive treatment, and use of insecticide-treated nets.
– Analyze blood samples for genetic markers of resistance to artemisinin derivatives and sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine.
– Conduct a retrospective time-interrupted series to assess the impact of COVID-19 on malaria care.
Key Role Players:
– Researchers and study investigators
– Healthcare providers and staff at the study sites
– Laboratory technologists for blood sample analysis
– Italian National Institute of Health for genetic marker detection
– Policy makers and government officials involved in malaria control
Cost Items for Planning Recommendations:
– Research personnel salaries and allowances
– Laboratory equipment and supplies for blood sample analysis
– Transportation and logistics for sample collection and shipment
– Data collection tools and materials
– Training and capacity building activities
– Publication and dissemination of study findings
Please note that the provided information is a summary of the study and may not include all details.

The strength of evidence for this abstract is 8 out of 10.
The evidence in the abstract is strong because it describes a well-designed prospective observational study that aims to explore the impact of antimalarial resistance and the COVID-19 pandemic on malaria care among pregnant women in Northern Uganda. The study will collect data using quantitative methods and semi-structured questionnaires, and will analyze blood samples for genetic markers of resistance. A retrospective time-interrupted series will also be conducted to investigate the impact of COVID-19 on malaria care. The study has been registered on ClinicalTrials.gov. To improve the evidence, the abstract could provide more details on the sample size estimation, inclusion and exclusion criteria, and statistical analysis plan.

Background: Uganda accounts for 5% of all malaria cases and deaths reported globally and, in endemic countries, pregnancy is a risk factor for both acquisition of P. falciparum infection and development of severe malaria. In recent years, malaria control has been threatened by COVID-19 pandemic and by the emergence, in Northern Uganda, of both resistance to artemisinin derivatives and to sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine. Methods: In this facility-based, prospective, observational study, pregnant women will be recruited at antenatal-care visits and followed-up until delivery. Collected data will explore the incidence of asymptomatic parasitemia and malaria-related outcomes, as well as the attitudes towards malaria prevention, administration of intermittent preventive treatment, healthcare seeking behavior and use of insecticide-treated nets. A subpopulation of women diagnosed with malaria will be recruited and their blood samples will be analyzed for detection of genetic markers of resistance to artemisinin derivatives and sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine. Also, to investigate the impact of COVID-19 on malaria care among pregnant women, a retrospective, interrupted-time series will be conducted on at the study sites for the period January 2018 to December 2021. Discussion: The present study will explore the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on incidence of malaria and malaria-related adverse outcomes, along with the prevalence of resistance to artemisinin derivatives and to sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine. To our knowledge, this is the first study aiming to explore the combined effect of these factors on a cohort of pregnant women. Trial registration: This study has been registered on the ClinicalTrials.gov public website on 26th April, 2022. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT05348746.

This will be a facility-based, prospective observational study, using quantitative methods of data collection. Semi-structured questionnaires will be administered to collect the data. The study will be conducted on three separate populations, that is: “Cohort of pregnant women”, “Antimalarial resistance sub-population”, and “COVID-19 impact population” for which study methods are described separately. The data will be collected following a cohort of pregnant women presenting to antenatal care visits. We shall have both a retrospective cohort for the period January 2018 to December 2021 to determine the Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on malaria control and a prospective cohort for the period July 2022 to June 2024 to determine the incidence of malaria related adverse maternal and foetal outcomes. For the prospective cohort, recruitment will take place at ANC clinic. Collected data will explore the practices towards malaria prevention during the COVID-19 pandemic, malaria and COVID risk-perception and use of insecticide-treated nets, while and follow up will investigate access to antenatal care visits, administration of IPTp, healthcare seeking behaviour in case of fever. Follow-up will end at delivery, when maternal and foetal outcomes will be collected. To estimate the epidemiological burden of resistance to first-line drugs for treatment and prevention of malaria in pregnant women, a separate sub-population of women diagnosed with positive malaria parasitaemia will be recruited. Prevalence of antimalaria resistance will be evaluated with a cross-sectional analysis of genetic polymorphisms in plasmodium parasites isolated from blood samples collected for the period July 2022 to June 2024. Individuals eligible for this subpopulation will be all pregnant women presenting with microscopically confirmed P. falciparum malaria in the study sites. For individuals included in this population, clinical data will be collected, and blood samples to be sent to Italian National Institute of Health, Rome, for detection of genetic markers of resistance to artemisinin derivatives and sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine. To investigate the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on malaria care, we will conduct a retrospective time-interrupted series. Data will be collected at multiple and equally spaced time points (monthly) comparing trends in two different time periods: “pre-pandemic”, from January 2018 to December 2019, and “during pandemic”, from January 2020 to December 2021. Facility-based aggregate data will be extracted about the following indicators: total admissions in maternity ward, total deliveries in maternity unit, women presenting to first ANC contact, women presenting to fourth ANC contact, administration of at least one dose of IPTp, administration of at least three doses of IPTp, number of pregnant women presenting to outpatient visits, number of pregnant women diagnosed of malaria during outpatient clinic, number of pregnant women diagnosed of severe malaria, total number of stillbirths. Inclusion criteria: All pregnant women at any gestational age presenting to the study sites, both at the emergency department, outpatient or ANC clinic will be eligible to participate in this study. Inclusion criteria will be: Exclusion criteria: All pregnant women presenting to Aber Hospital and selected healthcare facilities with microbiologically confirmed malaria will be eligible for recruitment. Inclusion criteria: Exclusion criteria: For the retrospective cohort investigating the impact of COVID-19, we shall use a facility-based census to include all pregnant mothers who sought care at the study sites for the period January 2018 to December 2021. For the prospective cohort, the sample size was estimated using the sample size estimation function in STATA12 for two-sample comparison of proportions. Null hypothesis: p1 = p2, (no difference in preterm birth rates), where p1 is the preterm birth rate among pregnant mothers diagnosed with malaria (exposed group) and p2 is the preterm birth rate among pregnant mothers with no diagnosis of malaria (non-exposed group). Assuming a type I error, alpha, of 0.050 for two-sided hypothesis, power of the study at 0.80, p1 = 0.075 and p2 = 0.039 based on the preterm birth rates reported in the Uganda Birth Cohort Study conducted from 2014–2016 in 12 districts in rural northern and southwestern Uganda [20]. Assuming equal number of participants in both groups, the required sample sizes in each of the two groups is 705. And after factoring in 10% for non-response in both groups, the total minimum required sample size is 1552 pregnant women (776 in each of the 2 groups). Given the total population of 779,600 in Oyam and Kole districts. Given that, based on Uganda bureau of statistics (UBOS), the total number of pregnant women in the two districts is expected to be 5% of the total population (n = 38,980); the expected rate of parasitemia among pregnant mother is expected to be 27% (n = 10,525) [21]; the expected resistance to sulfadoxine-pirimethamine and artemisinin-derivatives are, respectively, 16% and 20% [16, 18]; using the sample size calculation formula developed by Daniel and colleagues [22] and a margin of error, alpha = 5% the minimum required number of pregnant women diagnosed with malaria is 203. Applying 10% correction factor and assuming an increasing trend the required minimum sample size for this population is 224 cases of microscopically confirmed malaria among pregnant women. Sampling of health Units: The study will use purposive sampling to include Aber Hospital, Aboke HCIV and Atipe HCIII as the site for enrollment. This is based on the following criteria: Participants coming to the sampled in healthcare facilities that will meet the eligibility criteria will be included in the study. Consecutive enrollment of participants will be undertaken up to when the minimum sample size required for the study will be met. Thick and thin blood smears will be stained with 2% Giemsa and read by experienced laboratory technologists. Parasite densities will be calculated by counting the number of asexual parasites per 200 leukocytes (or per 500 leukocytes, if the count is < 10 asexual parasites/200 leukocytes), assuming a leukocyte count of 8000/µl. A blood smear will be considered negative when the examination of 100 high power fields does not reveal asexual parasites. Gametocytemia will also be determined from thick smears. Thin smears will be used for parasite species identification. At the time of delivery, recruited women will be screened for parasitemia on placental blood. This will be done by microscopy, with the same methods described above. The blood samples of the patients will be collected using filter paper (Whatman 3 MM) during admission to the healthcare facility. The dried blood spots (DBSs) will be collected through a finger prick (three drops of blood per participant) on filter papers which will be dried and kept in plastic bags with desiccant and stored in boxes in a cool dry place at room temperature before being transferred at the ISS for molecular diagnosis and drug resistance analysis. The collected blood samples will be shipped to Italy for advanced polymorphism analysis. During shipment, all the samples will be stored in a dry, cool place at room temperature to the Italian National Institute of Health (Istituto Superiore di Sanità, ISS). To enhance local capacity building, one laboratory person from Aber hospital will attend a two weeks exposure at the reference laboratory in Italy. Total genomic DNA will be extracted from filter blots (3MM Whatman) using the PureLink Genomic DNA Kits-Invitrogen, according to the manufacturer’s recommendation. Parasite identification is based on nested PCR assay targeting the 18S rRNA gene [23]. The 18S rRNA gene is used as a target since it contains both highly conserved and variable regions for each Plasmodium species. The genus-specific PCR will be followed by Plasmodium species-specific PCR amplification. Amplicons from the second PCR will be separated by electrophoresis on a 2% agarose gel and stained with ethidium bromide for visualization using ultraviolet trans-illumination. The presence of parasitaemia will be confirmed when the expected band size corresponding to P. falciparum, P. vivax, P. malariae and or P. ovale will be identified. Target P. falciparum drug resistance genes: Pfk13 propeller, Pfdhfr and Pfdhps. The polymorphisms analysis of the propeller domain of the Pfk13 gene will be performed by PCR amplifications and subsequent sequencing. Analysis of Pfdhfr gene at codons 51, 59, 108 and Pfdhps gene at codon positions 436, 437, 540, 581, 613 will be done by means of amplifications and subsequent Sanger sequencing. Commercial oligonucleotide primer pairs for Pfk13 will be obtained based on the published article by Taylor et al. [24], whereas for the analysis of dhfr and dhps genes primer pairs will be obtained based on the published article by Menegon et al. [25]. The obtained sequences will be compiled and analyzed by Accelrys DS Gene software. PlasmoDB gene identification no. PF3D7_1343700 (P. falciparum 3D7 strain) will be used as reference in the numbering of nucleotide and amino acid positions. Molecular studies will be performed only for research purposes and will have no impact on the clinical management of study patients. HIV and Syphilis will be measured according to the Uganda National Guidelines [19] Blood glucose will be measured by Glucometer “Accu-Chek Active”, Narang Medical LTD. Blood haemoglobin levels will be measured by Hemoglobin Testing System “Mission Ultra Hb”, Narang Medical LTD. For descriptive purposes continuous and ordinal variables data will be expressed as median with interquartile range. For categorical variables, percentages are calculated. Student’s t-test or analysis of variance (ANOVA) will be used to compare normally distributed numerical variables. Mann Whitney U-tests and Kruskal–Wallis tests will be used to compare numerical variables when normality cannot be assumed, while chi-squared tests will be used to compare categorical variables. Association analysis will be carried out to identify risk factors for Plasmodium infection and adverse maternal or foetal outcomes. We will compare behavioural factors and adherence to IPTp (and type of IPTp regimen) to the incidence of symptomatic/severe malaria and adverse neonatal or foetal outcomes (miscarriage, stillbirth, low birthweight). Multivariable logistic regression models will be used to identify independent risk factors for the same clinical outcomes. A forward and backwards stepwise approach will used to include variables into the models, with a limit of P < 0.2. A P-value of < 0.05 will be considered statistically significant. Final analyses will be conducted after the end of patient recruitment while interim analyses are planned at half 7 months from the incipit. Statistical analysis will be performed with R-software (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria).

Based on the provided information, it appears that the study “Impact of antimalarial resistance and COVID-19 pandemic on malaria care among pregnant women in Northern Uganda (ERASE)” aims to investigate the combined effect of antimalarial resistance, COVID-19 pandemic, and other factors on maternal health outcomes. The study will use quantitative methods and collect data through semi-structured questionnaires, blood samples, and retrospective data analysis. Here are some potential innovations that could be considered to improve access to maternal health based on the study:

1. Mobile Health (mHealth) Solutions: Implementing mobile health technologies, such as SMS reminders and mobile apps, to improve communication and provide timely information to pregnant women about malaria prevention, antenatal care visits, and healthcare seeking behavior.

2. Telemedicine Services: Establishing telemedicine services to enable remote consultations and follow-ups for pregnant women, especially in areas with limited access to healthcare facilities. This can help address barriers to accessing antenatal care and provide timely advice and support.

3. Community Health Workers (CHWs): Training and deploying CHWs to provide education, counseling, and basic healthcare services to pregnant women in remote areas. CHWs can play a crucial role in promoting malaria prevention, distributing insecticide-treated nets, and identifying and referring high-risk cases.

4. Point-of-Care Testing: Introducing point-of-care testing for malaria in antenatal care settings to enable rapid diagnosis and treatment of pregnant women with malaria. This can help reduce delays in receiving appropriate care and improve maternal health outcomes.

5. Integrated Service Delivery: Strengthening the integration of maternal health services with malaria prevention and treatment programs. This can include co-locating antenatal care and malaria services, ensuring availability of antimalarial drugs and insecticide-treated nets at antenatal care clinics, and promoting collaboration between healthcare providers.

6. Health Education and Behavior Change Communication: Developing targeted health education campaigns and behavior change communication strategies to raise awareness about the importance of malaria prevention, antenatal care visits, and early treatment-seeking behavior among pregnant women and their families.

7. Supply Chain Management: Improving the supply chain management of essential maternal health commodities, including antimalarial drugs, insecticide-treated nets, and diagnostic tests, to ensure their availability and accessibility in healthcare facilities.

8. Public-Private Partnerships: Collaborating with private sector organizations, such as pharmaceutical companies and telecommunication companies, to leverage their resources, expertise, and networks to improve access to maternal health services and interventions.

It is important to note that the specific recommendations for improving access to maternal health will depend on the findings and insights gained from the study. These recommendations should be tailored to the local context and consider the unique challenges and opportunities in Northern Uganda.
AI Innovations Description
The recommendation to improve access to maternal health based on the described study is to implement targeted interventions for malaria prevention and treatment among pregnant women in Northern Uganda. This can include the following strategies:

1. Strengthening antenatal care: Enhance the availability and accessibility of antenatal care services in the study sites. This can involve increasing the number of healthcare facilities providing antenatal care, ensuring adequate staffing, and improving the quality of care provided.

2. Intermittent Preventive Treatment in Pregnancy (IPTp): Promote the administration of IPTp to pregnant women to prevent malaria infection. This can involve training healthcare providers on the proper administration of IPTp and ensuring the availability of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine, the recommended drug for IPTp.

3. Distribution of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs): Increase the distribution and use of ITNs among pregnant women to protect them from mosquito bites and reduce the risk of malaria infection. This can involve conducting awareness campaigns on the importance of ITNs, providing ITNs free of charge or at subsidized prices, and ensuring regular replenishment of ITNs.

4. Monitoring and surveillance of antimalarial resistance: Establish a system for monitoring and surveillance of antimalarial resistance in pregnant women. This can involve regular collection and analysis of blood samples to detect genetic markers of resistance to artemisinin derivatives and sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine. The findings can guide treatment protocols and inform policy decisions.

5. Integration of malaria and COVID-19 services: Strengthen the integration of malaria and COVID-19 services to ensure that pregnant women receive comprehensive care. This can involve training healthcare providers on the management of both malaria and COVID-19, establishing referral systems between malaria and COVID-19 treatment centers, and promoting the use of personal protective equipment.

By implementing these recommendations, it is expected that access to maternal health, particularly in relation to malaria prevention and treatment, will be improved in Northern Uganda. This can lead to a reduction in the incidence of malaria among pregnant women and improved maternal and fetal outcomes.
AI Innovations Methodology
Based on the provided description, the study aims to investigate the impact of antimalarial resistance and the COVID-19 pandemic on malaria care among pregnant women in Northern Uganda. The study will use a facility-based, prospective observational design and collect quantitative data through the administration of semi-structured questionnaires.

To simulate the impact of recommendations on improving access to maternal health, a methodology could include the following steps:

1. Identify potential recommendations: Review existing literature, guidelines, and expert opinions to identify potential recommendations that could improve access to maternal health. These recommendations could include interventions such as increasing availability and accessibility of antenatal care services, improving healthcare infrastructure, promoting health education and awareness, enhancing transportation options, and strengthening community engagement.

2. Define outcome measures: Determine the outcome measures that will be used to assess the impact of the recommendations on improving access to maternal health. These measures could include indicators such as the number of pregnant women accessing antenatal care, the percentage of women receiving appropriate prenatal care, the rate of maternal and neonatal mortality, and the prevalence of maternal health complications.

3. Develop a simulation model: Create a simulation model that represents the maternal health system and incorporates the identified recommendations. The model should include relevant factors such as healthcare facilities, healthcare providers, pregnant women, transportation networks, and community dynamics. The model should also consider the potential interactions and dependencies between these factors.

4. Input data: Gather data on the current state of maternal health in the target population, including information on healthcare infrastructure, service utilization, health outcomes, and socio-demographic characteristics. This data will serve as the baseline for the simulation model.

5. Implement recommendations in the model: Introduce the identified recommendations into the simulation model and simulate their impact on improving access to maternal health. Adjust relevant parameters in the model, such as the availability and accessibility of healthcare services, the utilization rates of antenatal care, and the effectiveness of interventions.

6. Run simulations: Conduct multiple simulations using different scenarios and assumptions to explore the potential effects of the recommendations on improving access to maternal health. Vary the parameters and inputs in the model to assess the sensitivity of the results.

7. Analyze results: Analyze the simulation results to evaluate the impact of the recommendations on improving access to maternal health. Assess the changes in outcome measures compared to the baseline data and identify any significant improvements or challenges.

8. Validate and refine the model: Validate the simulation model by comparing the simulated results with real-world data, if available. Refine the model based on feedback from experts and stakeholders, and incorporate additional factors or recommendations as necessary.

9. Communicate findings: Present the findings of the simulation study in a clear and concise manner, highlighting the potential benefits and limitations of the recommendations. Share the results with relevant stakeholders, such as policymakers, healthcare providers, and community organizations, to inform decision-making and facilitate the implementation of effective interventions.

By following this methodology, researchers can simulate the impact of recommendations on improving access to maternal health and gain insights into the potential outcomes of implementing these recommendations in real-world settings.

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